What can be predicted and what can't? What would be the obvious consequences of an action or policy? Predictions usually have side effects that can't be predicted and these side effects could turn out to have many unforeseen effects, both good and bad, sort of like a series of unintended consequences even though we may have put ourselves in this self defeating position.
unintended consequence would then be that the social program would fail or the cost for the program was unforeseen and because of these cost it would then be a burden on society, and the program would fail.
The law of unintended consequences provides the basis for many criticisms of government programs. As the critics see it, unintended consequences can add so much to the costs of some programs that they make the programs unwise even if they achieve their stated goals. Not necessarily an unknown effect of the program, but probably was not predicted. The Food and Drug Administration, for example, creates enormously destructive unintended consequences with its regulation of pharmaceutical drugs. By requiring that drugs not only be safe but efficacious for a particular use, and because of this the FDA has slowed down the introduction of each new drug. An unintended consequence is that many people die or suffer who would have been able to live or thrive. This consequence, however, has been so well documented that the regulators and legislators now foresee it but accept it.
For instances, when the public's prediction of say a new social program that would help everyone in society and it proves false precisely because the prediction changes the course of history, would be an example. The
The law of unintended consequences provides the basis for many criticisms of government programs. As the critics see it, unintended consequences can add so much to the costs of some programs that they make the programs unwise even if they achieve their stated goals. Not necessarily an unknown effect of the program, but probably was not predicted. The Food and Drug Administration, for example, creates enormously destructive unintended consequences with its regulation of pharmaceutical drugs. By requiring that drugs not only be safe but efficacious for a particular use, and because of this the FDA has slowed down the introduction of each new drug. An unintended consequence is that many people die or suffer who would have been able to live or thrive. This consequence, however, has been so well documented that the regulators and legislators now foresee it but accept it.
willful ignorance. The flip side to this would be for example the warnings earlier in this century that population growth would lead to mass starvation, this helped spur scientific breakthroughs in agricultural productivity that have since made it unlikely that the gloomy prophecy will come true.
This would be termed “imperious immediacy of interest.” which is referring to instances in which someone wants the intended consequence of an action so much that he purposefully chooses to ignore any unintended effects, basically a type of |
Often predictions are nothing more then what can possibly be “seen” or “unseen.” The seen would be the obvious visible consequences of an action or policy. The unseen would then be the less obvious, and often unintended, consequences. In his famous essay “What Is Seen and What Is Not Seen,” Bastiat wrote:
There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen.
In the economic sphere an act, a habit, an institution, a law produces not only one effect, but a series of effects. Of these effects, the first alone is immediate; it appears simultaneously with its cause; it is seen. The other effects emerge only subsequently; they are not seen; we are fortunate if we foresee them.
There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen.
In the economic sphere an act, a habit, an institution, a law produces not only one effect, but a series of effects. Of these effects, the first alone is immediate; it appears simultaneously with its cause; it is seen. The other effects emerge only subsequently; they are not seen; we are fortunate if we foresee them.
Self-defeating ideas are ideas or statements whose falsehood is a logical consequence of the act or situation of holding them to be true. It is important to note however that the conclusion of an argument that is self defeating is not necessarily false, since it could be supported by another, more valid, argument.
A person who chooses people and situations that lead to disappointment, failure, or mistreatment even when better options are clearly available would be an example of self defeating behavior and is considered a personality disorder. Setting up to fail is a figure of speech used to describe situations in which people put themselves, or are put, into situations where they cannot possibly succeed, they may of had predictions or expectations they will succeed, but this would be an unjustified expectation. |
A doctor may discover that a particular patient has a strong genetic predisposition to breast cancer and may predict that she will develop the disease, but the patient may respond to the prediction by having a double mastectomy, eliminating the possibility of developing breast cancer, this is called a self defeating prediction.
A self fulfilling prediction is one that becomes true as a consequence of having been made. |
The Experimenter Expectancy Effect which is also called a self fulfilling prediction is an unconscious biases that affect the results of studies negatively. They are a result of the human tendency to besubjective rather than objective. They can bias the experiment at anytime from the initial research and reading done for the experiment to the publishing of results.
Which is basically a sentence with hitches that nullify them.
- I enjoy your company most when I am by myself.
- I absolutely refuse to be assertive.
- I won’t hesitate for a moment to avoid answering.
- If you want to think independently, you must imitate me.
- I used to be conceited, but now I’m perfect.
- To distinguish the real from the unreal one must experience both.
- If your father was sterile, the same is probably true of you.
Self Defeating Paradox and Theory
A Paradox is a statement or proposition that, despite sound (or apparently sound) reasoning from acceptable premises, leads to a conclusion that seems senseless, logically unacceptable, or self-contradictory. Self defeating is basically a paradox as well as a theory because the theory always fails, regardless how other theories measure it, if that theory is self-defeating. A self defeating theory fails in its own terms.
How can a theory be self-defeating? Here's an example. Take the following theory about self interest:
1. Each of us ought to act so as to bring about outcomes that are best for ourselves (and without regard to others' circumstances).
2. We each ought to never deny ourselves from fulfilling our desires. It turns out that this theory fails in its own terms.
1. Each of us ought to act so as to bring about outcomes that are best for ourselves (and without regard to others' circumstances).
2. We each ought to never deny ourselves from fulfilling our desires. It turns out that this theory fails in its own terms.
The groundbreaking theory expounded in Self-Defeating Behaviors asserts that, with each new moment, people have the ability to make a choice for either a self-defeating or self-enhancing behavior; this is the guide to freeing ourselves from the inappropriate and crippling behaviors that sabotage our success.
Willful Ignorance is available through Amazon, click on the image to be redirected to Amazon. The past success of statistics has depended on vast, deliberate simplifications amounting to willful ignorance, and this very success now threatens future advances in medicine, the social sciences, and other fields.
Self Defeating Behaviors is available through Amazon, click on the image to be redirected to the Amazon site and the information page. Willful Ignorance is available through Amazon, click on the image to be redirected to Amazon. The past success of statistics has depended on vast, deliberate simplifications amounting to willful ignorance, and this very success now threatens future advances in medicine, the social sciences, and other fields.
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